Subsequently, the main tsunami simulation results using different earthquake source models in Padang areas are discussed. (C) Spectral analysis. “We are trying to develop and integrate local wisdom with technology, so that communities can build the capacity to cope with the disaster themselves,” he says. J. Geophys. Megathrust earthquakes are almost exclusive to tectonic subduction zones and are often associated with the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Nature 456, 631–635. Solid Earth. Scaling relationships of the earthquake source parameters (Goda et al., 2016). The Indonesian version of DisasterAWARE, however, has been modified for scenarios that take the dispersed Indonesian islands into account. Hence, it is highly desirable to generate multiple earthquake source models by taking into account all relevant source parameters that are consistent with the regional source characteristics of the future tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Mentawai-Sunda zone. These dimensions, i.e., effective width and length, are then defined as W and L, respectively. (F) Mw 9.0 scenario considering uncertainty. Available at:, Hayes, G. P. (2010b). Res. The largest earthquakes occur on separate 'patches' along the megathrust surface (1797, 1833, 1861, 2004, 2005 & 2007), with smaller events occurring at the boundaries between these patches (1935, 1984, 2000 & 2002 Earth Planet. Around the Pacific Ocean is a horseshoe shaped area that contains subduction zones that create megathrust earthquakes and generate tsunamis. Res. In most of these zones a continental plate is overriding an oceanic plate because the oceanic plate is heavier and colder. doi:10.1126/science.1126960, Ji, C. (2005a). With the plain topographic features and high population density in urban areas, Padang will face significant economic and social losses due to the future tsunamigenic event in the Mentawai segment of the Sunda subduction zone. (2016), those studies implemented uniform slip models that oversimplify the earthquake source characteristics and considered a limited number of scenarios for future tsunamigenic events. Res. Specific predictions of the timing and severity of natural disasters are not possible, but Indonesian disaster management agencies are making substantial progress in providing warnings of potentially dangerous events. The magnitude of earthquake scenarios has significant influence on the hazard assessment. (2006). Figure 1. “The challenge that remains is getting information to people in the ‘last mile’ — people who need to know about it,” says Chris Chiesa, deputy director of the PDC. Although the single scenario approach is straightforward to communicate with the hazard results with emergency officers and relevant stakeholders, the multiple-scenario approach can produce a greater range of tsunami scenarios and therefore, more informed decisions regarding evacuation and mitigation actions can be made. The estimated median of the simulated tsunami wave profiles produced from stochastic tsunami simulation is acceptable in comparison to the results from Muhari et al. Before running the stochastic tsunami simulation, earthquake scenarios (e.g., magnitude and source zone) need to be selected and a suitable fault rupture zone model (e.g., geometry and asperity zone) needs to be defined. (C) GEBCO2014 bathymetry for the Sumatra region. 64, 2. doi:10.5047/eps.2011.08.002, Mai, P. M., and Beroza, G. C. (2000). These subduction zones are not only responsible for megathrust earthquakes, but are also largely responsible for the volcanic activity associated with the Pacific Ring of Fire. Built jointly with Germany and implemented over a three-year period in response to the 2004 Aceh-Andaman earthquake and tsunami, InaTEWS uses a network of 165 seismometers and accelerometers placed in the most seismically active island areas. The Sunda megathrust can be divided into the Andaman Megathrust, Sumatra(n) Megathrustand Java(n) … Geophys. The effective dimension analysis is carried out to calculate the width, length, mean slip, and maximum slip, while the Box–Cox analysis is used to characterize the probability distribution of the slip values. (2010) because they used Mw 8.92 to define their earthquake source scenario. Soc. “The risk is high,” Hermawan says, adding that he and EOS director Kerry Sieh believe the Mentawai Gap rupture could happen within the next few decades, or possibly sooner. J. Geophys. Front. The figures show that neglecting the uncertainty of the scaling relationships leads to identical dimensions (L and W) of the generated earthquake source models and the same slip statistics values for different realizations. Thanks to advances in monitoring near Agung, plenty of warning signs were detected, enabling disaster personnel to order evacuations before the volcano actually blew, and there were no casualties. Future tsunamigenic earthquake potential of the Sunda subduction zone geometries were greatly affected the! Earthquake source sunda megathrust earthquakes for the nineteen source models for tsunami simulation the super cycle of... 1797 produced a destructive tsunami at Padang and nearby could be hazardous extensive tsunami results... The shallow water equations with run-up ( Goto et al., 2008 Mw )... Culmination of 1797 to 1833 people died are removed to produce a 50 m resolution dataset along the Sunda zone! 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